Churchill 11
Audobon stakes
1- Spin wheel - Numbers are conflicting , some say forward others are flatlining. Have to like the dcl movement and simlulator 56 .
Leparaux jumps ship and out of the two horses he may have gone the wrong way . Running style fits and owns the late pace rating for timeform us . Will it be enough. With these sea saw horses , the late punch is somewhat concerning. Hard to discount how hot the trainer has been and with the right set up has a chance at a 10-1 price .
2- Grand Sonata - Pletcher puts him here and rightfully so . His parameters are very weak and his numbers are a reflection of it .
He has all the signs of flatlining and is a major go against here at the predicted price . Might float up from the 7-2 as the race is very deep indeed .
3- Tallahat - Strong strong simulators with a 36 point gap to the next horse down. Numbers are going in the right direction which helps. Is it good enough to take on this caliber when he has never been off lasix . IT is a big guess and you would need to get compensated to find out . The projected odds look like 7-1 so I don't know if you could take that leap, but if he jogs you will know why ,as his parameters are off the charts !!!
4- Play action - Avg numbers, but ran here so that gives him a small edge . He was against a strong flow last even though his running style doesn't show it . At 30-1 he is no easy horse to throw out so if you have deep pockets , have to use him somewhere in your tickets.
5- Kitodan- Tandem race with horse above and he looked like he ran the better race but simulators show the opposite. Another one who you really can't throw out as his progression is nice and if he ever runs back to the all weather race its over , He is not to be taken too lightly and I can't fault anyone for taking a stab
6- Red run- His third back carried one of the highest biases of the meet that favoured him(Today doesn't). His last was good and Leperaux lands here instead of the #1. projected money line is showing up stronger than most so he might take unwanted money . At the projected 7-1 odds he looks like a major play against unless he runs his best race ever .
7- Smokin T - Don't be fooled by the low odds , as this horse is a runner. But does he hold that much of an edge over the rest of them?? Some figures says he does others not so much. One thing is for sure , he was on the wrong part of the racetrack in his last race
and still ran big. Lot of players will try and get rid of him because of the low odds and I don't blame them but one thing is for sure, he gets
a major upgrade today due to different conditions, will it be enough?? alot of times they jump up 4 or 5 lengths when they get barried like in last so // you be the judge
8- Summer anthem -Tier 2 simulator with big upside . He should get a comfortable trip with those inflated Early parameters.
His 68 and 76 simms are really powerful and they win alot of races on turf all over the country. He does have one major negative simm
which does not allow you to make him a prime play but has the best line coming into the race. Big player
9- James jones- On paper looks good , but be real careful here as there is a major discrepancy within the top two simulators which makes him a major play against in this spot . Peter brant and Brown will ensure the price stays low and he is definitely a takeout reducer - Lay for sure , Hopefully gets bet lower than 9-2 ??
10- Speaking scout - They made him 6-1 out of respect for Motion but in reality should be much higher. Everything about him is flatlining which is not a good sign. So I am definitely against
11- Major General- This is a genius move or a desperate one . IF you trust Todd this horse may be able to wire them but I don't even knowing that he carries the best overall number in the field . Mixed signals on breeding and the move here on their part is confusing.
I'm out but wouldn't be shocked if he goes wire to wire
Extremely tough to nail down a legitimate winner as I never look at the horses based on value and handicap all the races without odds.
All things being equal you will know from my write up who I will lean towards . Good luck
Yes
Audobon stakes
1- Spin wheel - Numbers are conflicting , some say forward others are flatlining. Have to like the dcl movement and simlulator 56 .
Leparaux jumps ship and out of the two horses he may have gone the wrong way . Running style fits and owns the late pace rating for timeform us . Will it be enough. With these sea saw horses , the late punch is somewhat concerning. Hard to discount how hot the trainer has been and with the right set up has a chance at a 10-1 price .
2- Grand Sonata - Pletcher puts him here and rightfully so . His parameters are very weak and his numbers are a reflection of it .
He has all the signs of flatlining and is a major go against here at the predicted price . Might float up from the 7-2 as the race is very deep indeed .
3- Tallahat - Strong strong simulators with a 36 point gap to the next horse down. Numbers are going in the right direction which helps. Is it good enough to take on this caliber when he has never been off lasix . IT is a big guess and you would need to get compensated to find out . The projected odds look like 7-1 so I don't know if you could take that leap, but if he jogs you will know why ,as his parameters are off the charts !!!
4- Play action - Avg numbers, but ran here so that gives him a small edge . He was against a strong flow last even though his running style doesn't show it . At 30-1 he is no easy horse to throw out so if you have deep pockets , have to use him somewhere in your tickets.
5- Kitodan- Tandem race with horse above and he looked like he ran the better race but simulators show the opposite. Another one who you really can't throw out as his progression is nice and if he ever runs back to the all weather race its over , He is not to be taken too lightly and I can't fault anyone for taking a stab
6- Red run- His third back carried one of the highest biases of the meet that favoured him(Today doesn't). His last was good and Leperaux lands here instead of the #1. projected money line is showing up stronger than most so he might take unwanted money . At the projected 7-1 odds he looks like a major play against unless he runs his best race ever .
7- Smokin T - Don't be fooled by the low odds , as this horse is a runner. But does he hold that much of an edge over the rest of them?? Some figures says he does others not so much. One thing is for sure , he was on the wrong part of the racetrack in his last race
and still ran big. Lot of players will try and get rid of him because of the low odds and I don't blame them but one thing is for sure, he gets
a major upgrade today due to different conditions, will it be enough?? alot of times they jump up 4 or 5 lengths when they get barried like in last so // you be the judge
8- Summer anthem -Tier 2 simulator with big upside . He should get a comfortable trip with those inflated Early parameters.
His 68 and 76 simms are really powerful and they win alot of races on turf all over the country. He does have one major negative simm
which does not allow you to make him a prime play but has the best line coming into the race. Big player
9- James jones- On paper looks good , but be real careful here as there is a major discrepancy within the top two simulators which makes him a major play against in this spot . Peter brant and Brown will ensure the price stays low and he is definitely a takeout reducer - Lay for sure , Hopefully gets bet lower than 9-2 ??
10- Speaking scout - They made him 6-1 out of respect for Motion but in reality should be much higher. Everything about him is flatlining which is not a good sign. So I am definitely against
11- Major General- This is a genius move or a desperate one . IF you trust Todd this horse may be able to wire them but I don't even knowing that he carries the best overall number in the field . Mixed signals on breeding and the move here on their part is confusing.
I'm out but wouldn't be shocked if he goes wire to wire
Extremely tough to nail down a legitimate winner as I never look at the horses based on value and handicap all the races without odds.
All things being equal you will know from my write up who I will lean towards . Good luck
Yes
